Section 1 - Conquest, power assertion and rivalry

Contents

1. Geopolitical implications of space conquest: from the 1950s space race to the emergence of new actors
2. Asserting power from the oceans: nuclear deterrence and naval projection forces

The conquest of the oceans and space is both an instrument and an assertion of a State's power, which increases international rivalries.

Power is the ability for a State to impose its will on other countries through various means, encompassing influence and domination. This concept was introduced by the American political scientist Joseph Nye in the 1990s.

How do space and oceans provide opportunities for powers to assert their authority and influence?

#1. Geopolitical implications of space conquest: from the 1950s space race to the emergence of new actors

Space exploration serves as both a tool and a demonstration of a State's power, as it requires and showcases its technological and economic capabilities.

Space power refers to a State's ability to have complete autonomy in its use of space.

As it combines both hard and soft power, it is therefore a component of smart power. Additionally, given its significance, competition among States is a crucial driving force in the space race.

#A. Space as the arena for technological and ideological confrontations among major powers of the 20th century

#a) United States and USSR confrontation in space during the Cold War

The USSR was a pioneer in the 1950s. The first satellite, Sputnik, was launched in 1957, marking the beginning of the space race. Subsequent achievements included the launch of Laika the dog in 1957. Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space in 1961, and Valentina Tereshkova was the first woman in space in 1963.

The United States caught up with the USSR by recognising their lag and heavily investing in the 1960s. In 1958, the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) was established with a significant budget (more than 4% of the federal budget in 1966 compared to 0.4% today). In 1962, by declaring, “We choose to go to the Moon”, Kennedy revived the myth of the frontier. This marked the beginning of the Apollo program. The USA also launched its first communication satellite.

The rivalry between the USA and the USSR was dramatised by the media, to demonstrate their power. For example, Sputnik's beeping noise was heard worldwide for 22 days, and live broadcasts of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin's first steps on the Moon on July 20, 1969, were aired worldwide.

Space rivalries eased in the 1970s détente: the USSR could no longer afford to invest to catch up, and had to abandon its lunar program in 1974. Instead, the Soviet Union preferred cooperation, leading to the Apollo-Soyuz joint mission in 1975.

#b) Other countries asserting power through space race engagement

France initiated its space policy under de Gaulle's leadership from 1958. De Gaulle believed that national independence from both the USA and the USSR could be achieved through nuclear deterrence and attaining the status of a space power. This vision led to the establishment of the Centre National d'Études Spatiales (CNES) in 1961, and France's successful launch of its first satellite, Astérix, in 1965. As a result, France became the third nation capable of launching satellites into space.

During the 1970s, France joined European cooperation efforts, culminating in the creation of the European Space Agency (ESA) in 1975. Additionally, France participated in the development of the European launcher Ariane, alongside Germany, Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Norway.

France has emerged as a significant space power for several reasons. Firstly, it is the largest contributor to the ESA, boasting the third-largest space budget globally, albeit a quarter of NASA's budget and half that of China. Secondly, France has made substantial investments in ground infrastructure, launchers, satellites, and other space-related technologies, exemplified by the establishment of the Kourou spaceport in French Guiana. These investments have enabled France to achieve military autonomy in space operations. Without national satellites, France would be unable to command its deployed armed forces in real-time and would remain dependent on US satellite systems.

#B. Emerging countries among today's space powers structure and hierarchy

The USA holds the first position in space power due to its substantial budget, as space is considered a significant military asset. For example, in 2019, the US Space Command (Spacecom) was established as a military command for space.

About ten other powers possess their own space capabilities, including Russia, the EU, Japan, China, and India. Various other States are asserting their space ambitions, such as North and South Korea, Iran, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.

There are approximately 70 space agencies and private companies in the world.

India particularly aimed to elevate her hard power influence by becoming a space power. In 2014, while having a limited budget (1 billion dollars in 2016 compared to 40 billion for the USA), India launched its first satellite. There were economic and geopolitical implications, as satellites have both economic and military applications. India sought to demonstrate its full independence, particularly in missile guidance, to its nuclear-armed neighbours, China and Pakistan. India's recent achievement included a lunar probe in 2023, a feat previously that was only accomplished by Russia, the USA, and China. The country's strategy for success involves employing numerous highly qualified engineers who are paid less than their foreign counterparts, enabling them to replicate existing space technology.

#2. Asserting power from the oceans: nuclear deterrence and naval projection forces

Tristan Lecoq, in 2016, declared that throughout history, the sea serves as both the setting and the occasion for the expression of power. Since ancient times, mastering the oceans has represented both an instrument and a proclamation of power due to their significant strategic roles in economic and military spheres. Historically, maritime empires have consistently occupied positions as primary global powers.

The concept of Seapower was created in the late 19th century by the American Admiral Alfred Mahan. In The Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660-1783(1890), Mahan's analysis illustrated that maritime supremacy formed the foundation of Great Britain's historical power. Consequently, he deduced that control over the oceans constitutes a fundamental aspect of power. His ideas influenced American geopolitics and global thinkers, including those in Japan and Europe, advocating for formidable fleets to shape international power dynamics.

Seapower, defined as the ability to control the seas through naval prowess and maritime commerce, often ignites tensions and arms races among nations. A comprehensive understanding of power dynamics requires a shift in perspective to consider power projection from or through the oceans—recognising the maritime origins of power.

#A. "From projected power at sea to power arising from the sea" (Tristan Lecoq)

Since the end of the Cold War, naval forces have become indispensable for military deployment. This includes activities such as intelligence gathering through submarines, ground strikes, commando landings, and the transportation of attack helicopters.

#a) Oceans: key spaces for nuclear deterrence enabling power assertion.

The primary purpose of nuclear weapons is to prevent war, known as nuclear deterrence. Naval nuclear deterrence is achieved through ballistic missile submarines (Sub-Surface Ballistic Nuclear, or SSBN) owned by six countries (USA 14, Russia 13, France 4, UK 4, China 4, and India 1). These submarines are armed with missiles and torpedoes. SSBNs account for over 80% of France's nuclear force.

Naval nuclear deterrence offers several advantages:

It provides an invulnerable, massive striking force. For example, American SSBNs possess explosive power equivalent to 450 kilotons, which is twenty times that of the Nagasaki nuclear bomb.
It enables rapid targeting of any location, even over long distances. For instance, the range of missiles (with most of their trajectory underwater) is 12,000 km for the USA, 11,000 km for Russia, and 8,000 km for France and China. Missiles launched from SSBNs can reach 95% of urban areas on the planet.
It offers freedom of movement as there are no fixed fronts in the oceans. This is due to the submarines' discretion, operate quietly with nuclear propulsion, and their energy autonomy, allowing for extended patrols lasting 70 to 100 days.

The continuous presence of SSBNs at sea is a crucial element in maintaining the credibility of deterrence.

#b) Other naval projection forces

Various types of vessels exist, including capital ships, which are the most significant vessels. For example, aircraft carriers offer several advantages: onboard aircraft can strike deep inland, they provide greater flexibility than land bases as they can operate in freely navigable international waters, and they can be positioned near the operational area, reducing response times.

Helicopter carriers are utilised to deploy troops and equipment from the oceans to land. Frigates serve as combat ships equipped with missiles for protecting valuable vessels, engaging in combat, or conducting surveillance.

Attack nuclear submarines (SSNs, Ship Submersible Nuclear as the SS denotes a submarine and the N denotes nuclear power in the classification) are armed to attack other ships or land targets using torpedoes or missiles (with a range of 2,500 km for the US Tomahawk). Smaller than SSBNs, SSNs lack nuclear projection weapons, but their nuclear propulsion allows for long, discreet submersion, and they are fast. Fourty-five States possess SSNs, which undertake missions such as protection, intelligence gathering, and power projection, including mining or commando landings.

#B. Naval arms race and geopolitical rivalries in the oceans

The naval arms race reflects the desire for assertion and the hierarchy of powers. 80% of the world's warship tonnage is owned by 15 States.

#a) Three notable navies capable of force projection at a global scale

The USA possess the foremost navy due with the most modern equipment. They boast 11 out of 19 aircraft carriers, along with 14 ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and 50 attack submarines (SSNs), totalling 480 warships, which accounts for 18% of the world's naval vessels.

On the other hand, both the United Kingdom and France lag behind in naval strength. France, for instance, possesses one aircraft carrier with another under construction, along with 4 SSBNs and 6 SSNs. According to the Senate, “The French Navy is present on all the world's oceans, at all times, with 31 vessels and 5 aircraft deployed permanently.”

Similarly, the UK has 2 aircraft carriers, along with 4 SSBNs and 7 SSNs.

#b) Emerging powers in the naval arms race

China possesses the world's largest navy in terms of tonnage, with 770 armed vessels compared to the US Navy's 480 in 2022, although there is a difference in quality. In the same year, China launched the equivalent of all the vessels of the French Navy. They have 3 aircraft carriers, 5 SSBNs, and 8 SSNs, representing nearly 30% of the world's warships. The naval rise of China is one of the primary factors disrupting current global geostrategic balances.

India, on the other hand, has 2 aircraft carriers, although they are currently out of service, with another under construction. Additionally, they possess 1 SSBN and 1 SSN. India ranks 6th globally in tonnage but 4th in personnel, with over 68,000 sailors in service.

Russia is experiencing a resurgence in naval power, replacing the obsolete fleet of the USSR. They rank third in tonnage with approximately 600 ships, although not all are in excellent condition, representing 22% of the world's warships. As of 2024, they have only one operational aircraft carrier after modernisation, along with 13 SSBNs and 21 SSNs. However, due to a lack of official sources and confidentiality, information about Russia's naval capabilities is limited.