Conclusion - The Middle East: regional conflicts and peace efforts involving international actors (both state and non-state)

Contents

1. From the Arab-Israeli conflict to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: the attempts at resolution from the birth of Israel to the present day
2. The two Gulf Wars (1991 and 2003): from inter-state war to asymmetric conflict

The Middle East is a challenging region to define due to its lack of geographical or human unity. Instead, it is characterised as a geopolitical space, a term coined by British diplomacy in the late 19th century, with a perspective primarily from Europe.

Geographically, the Middle East encompasses a vast area around around the Persian Gulf, stretching from Egypt in the west to Iran in the east, and from Turkey in the north to the Arabian Peninsula in the south.

It stands out as a major global conflict zone, with wars having significant repercussions worldwide. Various factors contribute to tensions within the region, including competition for resources, manipulation of religious and ethnic diversity, and geopolitical rivalries among powerful nations.

What factors contribute to the repeated failures of peace efforts in the Middle East?

#1. From the Arab-Israeli conflict to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: the attempts at resolution from the birth of Israel to the present day

#A. Three inter-state conflicts between Israel and the Arab States until the 1970s

#a) 1947: UN partition plan for Palestine

In 1947, the United Nations proposed a partition plan for Palestine, aiming to establish both a Jewish State and an Arab state, with Jerusalem having an international status.

However, this plan faced rejection from Arab States primarily because it divided the proposed Palestinian State into two parts, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and allocated less than 50% of the land to Arabs, despite their demographic majority.

The decision to create separate states was influenced by Zionism. Zionism is a movement originating in the late 19th century, driven by the desire to provide a homeland for Jews, particularly in response to antisemitic threats like the Dreyfus Affair in France and pogroms in Russia.

#b) 1948: End of the British mandate, founding of the State of Israel and first Arab-Israeli War

In the first Arab-Israeli War, neighbouring Arab States launched attacks, including Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. Israel emerged victorious from the conflict. The Armistice of 1949 saw Israel gaining territories, including an additional 4,000 square kilometres, which encompassed West Jerusalem, subsequently declared as the capital of Israel, although not recognised as such by the international community.

However, the conflict did not result in the establishment of a Palestinian State, with the West Bank being annexed by Jordan and Gaza coming under Egyptian control. This period also marked the Nakba (or “the catastrophe”) during which around 800,000 Palestinians, constituting 70% of the Palestinian population, were expelled by the Israeli army and Jewish militias. These Palestinians were compelled to settle in camps located in neighbouring Arab countries, and today, there are approximately 4.7 million Palestinian refugees.

Those who remained in Israel faced discriminatory treatment, such as curfews and identity checks, rendering them as second-class citizens.

#c) 1967: The Six-Day War, second Arab-Israeli War

Israel launched an attack and emerged victorious against the Arab countries, notably destroying the Egyptian aviation within three hours.

As a result of the conflict, Israel's territory expanded significantly, encompassing areas such as Gaza, the West Bank, the Sinai Desert, the Golan Heights, and East Jerusalem, including the Western Wall, a significant Jewish holy site.

Jewish settlers began moving into these territories, while many Palestinians were displaced, totalling approximately 500,000 individuals, marking the onset of colonisation.

Efforts towards peace were made through inter-state channels, notably with the United Nations Resolution 242, which called for the liberation of the territories occupied by Israel. However, this resolution was never implemented.

#d) 1973: The Yom Kippur War, third Arab-Israeli War

In 1973, Egypt and Syria launched attacks and achieved military victories against Israel. Following these events, the UN demanded a ceasefire through Resolution 338.

In retaliation, Arab OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations quadrupled the price of oil to sanction Western countries supporting Israel, thereby triggering the first oil shock of 1973 and marking the beginning of a global crisis, and the end of the “Glorious Thirty.”

The Egyptians, having vindicated the humiliation of the 1967 defeat, were now able to negotiate on equal footing with Israel.

#e) 1978: Camp David Accords, an attempt at peace through the American arbitration

In 1978, the Camp David Accords marked an attempt at peace mediated by a State actor, with American arbitration leading to the end of inter-state conflict.

These negotiations between Egypt and Israel, facilitated by US President Jimmy Carter at Camp David, resulted in the recognition of the State of Israel by Egypt, an Arab nation.

As part of the agreement, Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt, a territory it had captured in 1967. However, Israel failed to uphold certain aspects of the agreements regarding Gaza and the West Bank.

#B. Since the 1970s, an asymmetrical conflict between Israel and the Palestinians

This conflict involves Palestinians both inside and outside the Palestinian territories.

There is a division among Arab countries (the end of pan-Arabism), which ceased wars against Israel. An illustrative example is the Camp David Accords in 1979, which prompted Egypt to sign a peace treaty with Israel and subsequently be ousted from the Arab League, labeled a “traitor” by some.

Pan-Arabism is characterised by secular nationalism and epitomised by leaders such as Nasser in Egypt, aimed to unify all Arabs under one State.

Pan-Islamism, embodied by movements like the Society of Muslim Brothers and Al-Qaeda, seeks to unite all Muslims under a politico-religious banner.

#a) PLO: Palestine Liberation Organisation, an organisation operating from outside Israel

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in 1964, led by Yasser Arafat, demanded:

The return of Palestinian refugees to their lands.
The liberation of territories occupied by Israel, as it did not recognise Israel.

The PLO, a non-state actor, nationalist and secular rebel group, resorted to terrorism from refugee camps. In retaliation, Israel assassinated its leaders and bombed the refugee camps, resorting to vendetta or the law of retaliation. For example, during the Munich Olympics of 1972, the “Black September” operation saw 11 Israeli athletes being taken hostage by a Palestinian commando, resulting in their deaths.

The presence of Palestinian refugees destabilised neighbouring States. For instance, in 1982, during the “Operation Peace for Galilee,” Israel entered Lebanon to eradicate the PLO, resorting to the bombing of Beirut with napalm. The massacre of the Sabra and Shatila camps saw 2,000 Palestinians killed by Lebanese Christian militias, under the eyes of Israelis who allowed it to happen.

Although the UN passed Resolution 508 calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon, it was not executed.

#b) Stone Intifada, a Palestinian uprising movement inside Israel

During the "War of the Stones" from 1987 to 1993, and later in 2000, Palestinians engaged in civil resistance. They threw stones and stopped paying taxes to protest their living conditions, which were notably inferior to those of Jewish citizens, with Palestinians earning only half the salary.

This civil resistance arose as the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) became incapacitated due to its distance from the region and the targeted assassination of its leaders by Israel.

Consequently, the Hamas movement emerged in Gaza as a non-conventional actor, representing an Islamist terrorist group. Hamas aimed to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic State in Palestine.

In contrast, Fatah, a secular nationalist movement, initially resorted to terrorism but eventually shifted towards negotiation, serving as the official political party of the PLO.

#C. Early 1990s: attempted peace between Israel and the PLO

The PLO transitioned from terrorism to negotiation starting from the 1980s.

There was US mediation during the Oslo Accords of 1993 between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin (Israeli Prime Minister), who both received the Nobel Peace Prize. They established a “Palestinian Authority” (not a State) with limited powers in Gaza and the West Bank. In exchange, the PLO recognised the existence of Israel.

#D. Stalled peace process since 1995 because of radicalisation of both sides.

#a) Division among Israelis

There is a conflict between religious extremist settlers and secularists. Rabin's assassination in 1995 by a Jewish religious extremist who opposed the peace process marked a turning point.

Since then, the far right has been in power and is less inclined towards dialogue with Palestinians, gaining increasing support from religious extremists. Their priority is security over peace, evident in their initiatives such as building a wall and advancing colonisation efforts.

#c) Division among Palestinians

there is a conflict between Gaza, governed by the Islamist Hamas and supported by Iran, and the West Bank, the seat of the Palestinian Authority led by the nationalist Fatah and supported by Jordan.

#E. Is peacemaking impossible?

Israeli settlement in Palestinian territory continues, with over 700,000 Jews settled in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Many settlements were annexed to Israel during the construction of the wall. The Palestinian Authority only controls 40% of its territory in the West Bank, in the form of discontinuous zones. There are still 4.7 million Palestinian refugees, comprising more than half of the Palestinian population.

Recognition of Palestine as an “Observer State” non-member of the UN has been granted, and the State of Palestine is recognised by 136 countries. However, the UN faces a blockade as resolutions are never implemented, with Israel supported by the USA using their veto power. Peace negotiations have been attempted through US arbitration, including efforts such as Camp David, Oslo, and Trump's “peace” plan.

In 2017, the USA recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital (otherwise Tel Aviv). The Abraham Accord of 2020 led to the recognition of Israel by four Arab countries, under the auspices of Donald Trump (Sudan, Morocco, UAE, Bahrain), uniting against the common enemy of Iran. In 2020, a proposed Peace Plan included the annexation of the West Bank by Israel, signalling recognition of colonisation. In exchange, the Palestinians would have received other strategically located territories, although these areas were described as less fertile and not connected to each other.

There is a paralysis in achieving a resolution for two distinct States due to several factors. Firstly, Israel appears satisfied with prioritising its security concerns over negotiations for a two-state solution. Additionally, the continued expansion of settlement activities in Palestinian territories undermines the viability of a future Palestinian State. The fragmentation of Palestinian territories further complicates the situation, making cohesive governance challenging. Moreover, internal divisions within both Israeli and Palestinian societies hinder progress towards a peaceful resolution. Internationally, the focus on the conflict has diminished, with other global issues taking precedence.

Recent events, such as the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, targeting Israelis and Israel's subsequent repression in the Gaza Strip, have exacerbated tensions and may further radicalise both sides, potentially influencing global opinion on the matter.

#2. The two Gulf Wars (1991 and 2003): from inter-state war to asymmetric conflict

#A. The First Gulf War (1990-91): a multilateral inter-state war that demonstrates collective security in action

#a) Context in 1991: the New World Order

Following the end of the Cold War, the United States emerged as a hyperpower aiming to establish a New World Order. This concept, introduced in 1990 by US President G. H. Bush, envisioned a pacified global landscape, now that the Cold War had come to an end with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. With the world no longer divided into two opposing blocs, the idea was to foster a sense of unity under American leadership.

At the forefront of this vision was the United States, which sought to collaborate with the United Nations, now less hindered by Cold War tensions, to promote American values such as political liberalism and capitalism. This approach, often likened to the American Manifest Destiny, aimed to collectively ensure peace and manage global affairs.

This framework, known as multilateralism, emphasised the importance of States considering the perspectives and interests of others in international relations.

#b) Brief presentation of the war


ORIGINS	August 1990, the Iraqi army, under the leadership of President Saddam Hussein, invaded Kuwait, a small State located to the southeast of Iraq, in order to seize its oil reserves and gain access to the Persian Gulf. Despite demands from the UN for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait, Iraq refused to comply. In response, the international community, acting under the principle of the right to intervene, took action.
DEVELOPMENT	In January-February 1991, within the span of just one month, the "Desert Storm" operation effectively defeated the Iraqi army, resulting in approximately 150,000 Iraqi casualties compared to 240 casualties among the international coalition forces.
ACTORS	A coalition of 34 States (1 million soldiers) driven by the UN and under US command (Multilateralism). Regional and international State actors: Iraq vs UN coalition.
GOALS	War was waged to restore "peace": Kuwait was liberated as the Iraqi army withdrew. Resolution of a regional interstate conflict by a multilateral coalition under UN mandate.
CONSEQUENCES	Hope for a world without conflict: the UN is no longer paralysed, with the end of the Cold War. Iraq heavily sanctioned by the UN: blockade prevented exporting oil, the country's primary resource. Anti-American sentiment grew as poverty sets in. Saddam Hussein exploited the situation to strengthen his control over the population and suppressed the Kurds and Shiites.
CONCLUSION	Resolution of the conflict was therefore not enough to fully extinguish local tensions.

#B. The Second Gulf War (2003-2011): a unilateral and preventive war that ends the ideal of collective security

#a) Division in the UN

The 11 September 2001 attacks marked a unilateral turn for the USA. President George W. Bush declared “War on Terrorism”, signalling a departure from previous interventions aimed at restoring peace in the 1990s. Instead, the focus shifted to preventive measures, seeking to eliminate potential future threats. This shift marked the end of the ideal of a global and perpetual peace.

For example, the USA initiated military action in Afghanistan in 2001, targeting Osama bin Laden, believed to be hiding there. Additionally, the USA accused Saddam Hussein of developing weapons of mass destruction and having ties to Al-Qaeda.

Intense debates erupted at the UN in 2003, with France, Russia, and China questioning the legitimacy of a war in Iraq. This unilateral approach reflects a State's actions solely based on its interests, without considering other States.

#b) Brief presentation of the rapid victory of the US coalition


ORIGINS	The USA accused Saddam Hussein of developing weapons of mass destruction and of being close to Al-Qaeda. However, faced with the risk of a veto at the UN, Bush unilaterally entered into war without the support of the UN.
DEVELOPMENT	March-May 2003: The "Operation Iraqi Freedom" that defeated the Iraqi army made 1 million Iraqi civilians deaths against 4,400 American deaths.
ACTORS	The unilateral approach involved the USA along with a few loyal allies such as he UK, Spain, and Australia, totalling 330,000 soldiers, of which 250,000 were from the US. This conflict transitioned from an interstate war in 2003 to asymmetrical warfare from 2003 to 2011.
GOALS	War waged to prevent war! In May 2003, Bush declared that "the major military operations were over," yet no peace treaty was signed. This marked the resolution of an interstate conflict in a unilateral manner.
CONSEQUENCES	End of 2003: Saddam Hussein was captured. He was hanged in 2006. The de-Ba’athification process (dissolution of the Baath Party, which had been in power since 1963) led to the dismissal of 600,000 officials, including military personnel, police officers, and teachers. This purge removed experienced individuals crucial for the country's reconstruction, many of whom were accustomed to handling weapons. Without employment, they faced uncertainty about their future. Although not all of them necessarily supported Hussein, they were seeking job opportunities. The political power dynamics shifted as well, with Hussein relying on Sunnis while the USA supported Shiite involvement in Iraq's transition to democracy. Anti-American sentiment continued to rise, particularly among unemployed Sunnis and the general population deprived of public services. Meanwhile, the Kurds in Iraq achieved autonomy in their northern province.
CONCLUSION	The US achieved to start a civil war. The Sunnis are marginalised, impoverished, and imprisoned. The Shiites, the majority, were brought to power by the USA. They sought revenge after years of marginalisation and persecution under Hussein (who was Sunni).

#c) A relative victory which led to civil war

As early as October 2003, a US report admitted that no weapons of mass destruction had been found. The US forces were seen as an occupying army from 2003 onward, providing no assistance to the population, which lacked basic necessities.

The situation worsened with the presence of prisons and the deaths of Iraqi civilians. Americans were confined to specific areas and travelled only in armoured vehicles, sometimes firing at civilians out of fear they might be terrorists, leading to protests and anti-US attacks from 2003. In 2004, photos of Iraqi prisoners humiliated by US soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison fuelled further anti-American sentiment.

The so-called "democratisation" process deepened the divide between Sunnis and Shiites. The marginalisation and distrust of Sunnis toward Shiite authority fuelled regional terrorism, leading to the emergence of "Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" in 2003 and the proclamation of the Islamic State in Iraq in 2014. It aimed to restore Sunni power in Iraq and carried out numerous deadly attacks, resulting in 120,000 deaths.

An asymmetric conflict emerged in Iraq following the interstate war, with the USA and the Iraqi army on one side, facing Jihadist terrorist groups and militias supported by other State actors on the other. This shift marked the transition from conventional warfare to a complex web of insurgencies, sectarian violence, and terrorism. While the initial goal of the US intervention was to democratise Iraq and eliminate perceived threats, such as weapons of mass destruction, the outcome was far from the intended result. Instead, Iraq plunged into a prolonged and devastating civil war characterised by escalating violence, deepening sectarian divisions, and the proliferation of extremist groups. Despite efforts to stabilise the country, the conflict undermined the legitimacy of the Iraqi state, exacerbated regional tensions, and contributed to the spread of terrorism beyond Iraq's borders. Overall, the intervention in Iraq led to unintended consequences and highlighted the challenges of nation-building and peacekeeping in a fragile region.

#d) Peacemaking challenges and the return of the USA

The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in 2011, under Obama's decision, left the country embroiled in a severe civil war, with unresolved issues persisting. This vacuum facilitated the influx of Jihadist groups, Sunnis, and foreign fighters who rallied under the banner of Daesh, reaching its peak in 2015.

In response, a coalition led by the US reengaged against Daesh, employing primarily airstrikes supported by Iraqi forces, Shiite militias backed by Iran, and Kurdish fighters. Despite initial setbacks for Daesh, the group has shown resilience, regaining territory and perpetrating attacks within Iraq. Additionally, this conflict has inadvertently bolstered Iran's influence in the region, although it faces opposition from segments of the local population averse to foreign intervention.